| Description |
Since 2007, the number of refugees fleeing conflict and violence has doubled to about 25
million. Mass migration has destabilized the European Union, lead to broad changes
in national immigration policies, and triggered the resurgence of far right, xenophobic
political parties. Yet little is known about how illicit human smuggling institutions
may be driving migration and the subsequent political changes. We leverage granular
data on migrant flows across the Mediterranean, coupled with information about sea
routes, riots at port cities, and wave conditions, to conduct two studies. We find
substantial evidence that migrant flows respond to political and environmental risks as
well as a government-led counter-smuggling intervention. These findings clarify drivers
of migration and suggest actions that can be taken to mitigate human smuggling.
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