Andrei
Yeliseyeu

Contrary to official statistics, a number of estimates, employing census data and population loss due to natural causes, and based on bilateral migration stocks, show that Belarus, since its independence, has had a negative net migration: the numbers come in at about 130,000. Population loss due to external migration is even more considerable (700,000) if one counts migration on the basis of the migrants’ place of birth: many Belarus-born emigrants left the country before 1990 and did not return, and a large number of immigrants after 1990 were Belarus-born repatriated from other former USSR countries. Official statistics for the external net migration rate and labour migrants have been distorted by poor migration accounting, while political considerations have deterred some academic institutions from taking a more critical approach. External migration is negative in demographic terms in quantitative but also in qualitative terms as emigrants are, on average, younger and better educated, while immigrants are less-skilled, with a larger proportion of people past working age. The positive demographic impact of the 1980s high fertility rate has recently ended. Since 2008, the pool of labour resources has been gradually diminishing. The share of people below working age has been falling while the share of those above working age has risen. Thus unfavorable demographic trends in terms of population loss and age distortion are aggravated by external migration. With all the negative demographic impact that external migration implies, labour migration has an ambiguous economic impact. It contributes to sizable human capital losses and a deficit in some sectors (e.g., construction) due to the labour migration to Russia. But it also eases unemployment and provides remittances from the migrants to their communities.

In the first half of the 1990s, Belarus saw large migration flows, which since then have become considerably more moderate. The main destination countries for Belarusian emigrants are Russia, Poland, Germany, the US, and Canada. Over the last decade, temporary labour migration of Belarusians to the European Union has remained rather limited. At the same time labour migration flows of Belarusians towards Russia have increased. Belarus is a highly centralized state with regional authorities playing a marginal role in elaborating state policies, including in emigration matters. In order to curb emigration, Belarus authorities have resorted to the adoption of laws that discourage mobility. Taking into account growing labour shortages, the state policy to attract immigrants has been largely ineffective. At the same time, by September 2014 Belarus had reportedly hosted more than 25,000 Ukrainian migrants as a result of the military conflict in the Donbass region. Diaspora policy in Belarus is largely incoherent and selective. The long-awaited diaspora law is set to be adopted soon, but it fails to take into account the aspirations of diaspora members.