Forecasts, projections and scenarios

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Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

Authors Jonathan J. Azose, Adrian E. Raftery
Year 2015
Journal Name Demography
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1 Journal Article

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method

Authors Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Peter W. F. Smith, James Raymer, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name Demography
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2 Journal Article

Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants

Authors Guillaume Marois, Patrick Sabourin, Alain Bélanger
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of Demographic Economics
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3 Journal Article

Migrationsordnungs-, -system und -regimeanalyse sowie Entwicklung von zukünftigen Migrationsszenarien

Principal investigator Sulin Sardoschau (Principal Investigator)
Description
"Inhalt und Fragestellung: Wir erleben gegenwärtig eine Periode fundamentaler sozialer Transformation, die charakterisiert ist durch den Aufstieg neuer Wirtschaftsmächte, den BRICS- und MINT-Staaten, zunehmende soziale und demographische Ungleichgewichte, geopolitische Unbeständigkeiten, die in diversen Konflikten, sozialen Bewegungen und Aufständen in der Nachbarschaft der EU sichtbar werden, sowie insbesondere die Vierte Industrielle Revolution und nicht zuletzt den Klimawandel. In Deutschland und anderen Ländern geschieht dies vor dem Hintergrund alternder und schrumpfender Bevölkerungen und einer Arbeits- und vor allem Fachkräfteknappheit. Diese Konstellation bringt zunehmende geographische Mobilität und Migration ebenso wie Fluchtbewegungen hervor. Männer und Frauen sowie verschiedene Altersgruppen werden jeweils spezifisch von diesen Verwerfungen berührt, haben geschlechtsspezifische Optionen und reagieren demnach unterschiedlich. All dies berührt die Position der einzelnen Staaten innerhalb der Regionen und globalen Migrationsordnung. In diesem Projekt soll deshalb vor dem Hintergrund von sozialer Transformation und Migrationstransitionsprozesse eine genderdifferenzierte Migrationssystem- und Regimeanalyse durchgeführt werden. Dieses Projekt dient vor allem dazu, die Position und Rolle der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der regionalen Migrationsordnung als Zielland von Migration im regionalen Kontext zu verstehen, aber auch mögliche zukünftige Migration besser abschätzen zu können. Methodik Sekundäranalyse verschiedener makro-ökonomischer und soziologischer Datensätze von UN, Weltbank, Unicef, IOM, UNHCR, ILO, OECD, Eurostat und ähnliche sowie teils auch nationale Daten. Zudem ziehen wir die mikro-soziologischen Daten vorausgegangener Projekte heran, insbesondere die Surveys der Eumagine, Demig, Themis, sowie den Gallup/IOM Surveys. In diesem Kontext werden wir auch die Kooperation verschiedener sozialwissenschaftlicher Disziplinen mit kritischen Datenstudien erproben. Arbeitsschritte Im ersten Schritt identifizieren und besorgen wir die relevanten Daten und untersuchen und vergleichen die Makro-Level Treiber (Wirtschaft, Demographie, Politik) der Entsende- und Zielstaaten der Region (Osteuropa und Zentralasien, Naher und Mittlerer Osten, Nord- und Zentralafrika). Im zweiten Schritt werden wir die Ergebnisse in einem Bericht vorstellen sowie visualisieren und nutzerfreundlich präsentieren. Im dritten Schritt verschaffen wir uns Zugang zu den mikrosoziologischen Daten früherer Projekte. Dies führt zu einem Forschungsbericht. Und in einem vierten Schritt werden wir diverse Methoden zur Antizipation von Migration bzw. zur Entwicklung von Szenarien untersuchen und anschließend in einem fünften Schritt anwenden."
Year 2018
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6 Project

Assessing Immigration Scenarios for the European Union in 2030 Relevant, realistic and reliable?

Authors Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Ravenna Sohst, Jasper Tjaden, ...
Description
There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios. In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.
Year 2020
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7 Report

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

Authors Ron Bradfield, George Wright, George Burt, ...
Year 2005
Journal Name FUTURES
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8 Journal Article

Linking the Earth's Future to Migration: Scenarios of Environmental Change and Possible Impacts on Forced Migration

Authors Johannes Frühmann, Jill Jäger
Year 2010
Book Title ENVIRONMENT, FORCED MIGRATION AND SOCIAL VULNERABILITY
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9 Book Chapter

International Migration and Europe’s Demographic Challenge

Authors Philippe FARGUES
Description
Demography challenges Europe in three ways: 1) Europe’s size: while the population of Europe will decrease or stabilise, depending upon migration scenarios, most other regions will continue to increase so that the relative weight of Europe in world population terms will dwindle, thereby endangering Europe’s weight in world affairs and the institutions of global governance; 2) Europe’s wealth: the European workforce is about to enter a period of fast decline that might hamper Europe’s ambitious economic goals; 3) Europe’s social contract: the unprecedented rise of an elderly population combined with shrinking numbers of working-age natives alters the generational contract and will put Europe’s welfare systems at risk. In order to curb negative population trends, Europe can have recourse to various strategies, each of them having though only a partial potential impact on the above challenges: 1) Geographic enlargement: including new countries in the European Union (EU) brings at once additional populations to the Union; 2) Pro-natalist policies: if successful, they would foster a higher birth rate which translates 20 years later into a corresponding increase in the working-age population; 3) Immigration policies: calling in immigrants would affect both the size and the structure of the population; 4) Retirement policies: changing the age limit between economic activity and retirement is a way to address problems brought about by demographic numbers without changing the numbers themselves; 5) Other policies, notably those on education and labour, can also contribute to addressing, albeit indirectly, some of the problems generated by a decreasing workforce.
Year 2011
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11 Report

Les Deltas Asiatiques comme champ d'observation et de la recherche sur les migrations et les stratégies d'adaptation au changement climatique

Principal investigator Sylvie Fanchette (Principal Investigator)
Description
Deltas are coastal Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES) characterised by the interplay between rivers, lands and oceans, influenced by a combination of riverine and oceanic processes, shaped by human interventions under strong state water control management policies. Deltas provide numerous resources such as fertile land and water for irrigated and intensive agriculture, fisheries, abundant biodiversity as well as non-farm activities. Thanks to their location at the interface of lower valleys and the sea, and their fluvial connections, trade and exchange have flourished and led to the development and expansion of some of the world’s largest metropolises. Asia is home to the largest and most populated deltas in the world. However, deltas are recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments. They face a range of threats operating at multiple scales, from global climate change (CC) and sea-level rise (SLR) to various hazards (floods, erosion, salinization, subsidence), local anthropogenic activities and land use changes. Deltas are relevant sites for adaptation to CC studies, given they are dynamic systems where communities have a long record of adapting to natural hazards and are accustomed to being highly exposed to environmental risks. Local populations whose livelihoods depend on natural resources have adapted in different ways to live with floods. Objectives The MOVINDELTAS project intends to understand the challenges for deltaic populations when their livelihoods are at risk due to environmental/climatic and global economic changes, and their adaptive capacity sustainability through the current scenarios in the Ganges-Brahmapoutra-Meghna and Mekong deltas. The project approach isinterdisciplinary, multi-scale and long term(past history experiences and forecasting) from four perspectives: i) a physical and environmental assessment of risks posed by multi-hazards linked to adaptive strategies, ii) a socio-economic vulnerability assessment of the population exposed to these hazards, iii) an assessment of the population and local stakeholders’ perception of risk in the risk hotspots, and iv) a projection of how the risk is expected to evolve in the coming decades, with climate changes in the GBM and Mekong deltas. Through its various components, MOVINDELTAS aims to meet several specific objectives: Enhance the understanding of the dynamics of deltaic Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES), and the level of sustainability of deltaic population livelihoods under multi-hazard environmental change. Define the complexity of new patterns of mobility and immobility/migration and non-migration, (involuntary) displacement and translocal livelihoods (across multiple locations, gender, cultures and social classes) in delta regions defined as risk hotspots. Assess the various adaptive strategies and community responses to multi-hazards under expected environmental change in risk hotspots, through model-scenarios/CC in a new context of global CC. Conduct an in-depth and evidence-based analysis of the differentiated perceptions, sensitivity and experiences of men and women in their strategies for coping with environmental, global and climate changes. Include stakeholders in an iterative consultative process throughout the project in order to better understand their perspectives, develop informed models and maximise the potential impact of policy response. Under this specific objective, experience sharing between deltas and the use of local knowledge on adaptation strategies in vulnerable flood deltas will allow future learning, and contribute to the sustainability of the proposed methodology. In fact, the Nile delta is the perfect environmental configuration for a test case as it has several converging and divergent parameters characteristic of South-East-Asia. Partnerships : 27 partners from 4 European countries (France, UK, Germany and Netherland), 4 Asian countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Bangladesh) and Egypt.
Year 2018
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12 Project

Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

Authors Guy J. Abel, James Raymer, Jakub Bijak, ...
Year 2013
Journal Name Demographic Research
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13 Journal Article

A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

Authors Guy J Abel, Jakub Bijak, James Raymer
Year 2010
Journal Name Population Trends
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15 Journal Article

The Impacts of the Current Financial and Economic Crisis on Migration in the Spain-Morocco Corridor

Authors Joaquín ARANGO, Fernando GONZÁLEZ QUIÑONES
Description
Abstract In 2009, it seems clear that the period of relatively rapid and sustained increase of international migration has come to a halt or, at any rate, slowed down as a result of the financial and economic crisis that started in the summer of 2007. It can be surmised that Spain is likely to be counted among the countries in which the multiple repercussions of the crisis on immigration will be larger and deeper. One reason for it is the fact that in Spain the economic downturn results in exceptionally higher rates of unemployment. Another reason is that the contrast of the new reality generated by the crisis is bound to mark an especially stark contrast with the preceding one. This paper aims at analyzing the major implications of the present financial and economic crisis on Spanish immigration, with particular attention to the community of Moroccan background that lives and works in Spain. The consequences of the recession on migration flows, their changing volume and trends are analyzed, together with its impacts on the demand for labor, unemployment and living conditions. With the many limitations that the paucity of data impose, trends in return migration and in the volume of remittances are examined as well. Looking at the future, it is likely that a long time frame will be required in Spain until the deep effects of the crisis disappear, due to the peculiar characteristics of the Spanish labour market. In such a scenario, it is clear that the forecasts for the employment and opportunities of the immigrant population cannot avoid a certain degree of pessimism. Résumé En 2009, l’augmentation des flux migratoires a subi un fort ralentissement suite à la crise financière et économique qui a commencé au milieu de l'année 2007. On peut affirmer que l'Espagne va probablement figurer parmi les pays dans lesquels les répercussions multiples de la crise sur l'immigration seront plus grandes et plus profondes. Ceci dépend du fait qu’en Espagne le ralentissement de l'économie a provoqué des taux de chômage exceptionnellement plus hauts par rapport à d'autres pays. Une autre raison est que la nouvelle réalité produite par la crise est difficilement réversible. Cette étude propose d’analyser les implications de la crise financière et économique actuelle sur l'immigration espagnole, avec une attention particulière à la communauté marocaine qui vit et travaille en Espagne. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, sont analysés les implications de la récession sur les flux migratoires, leur ampleur et tendances, ainsi que l’impact sur la demande du travail, le chômage et les conditions de vie. Malgré les nombreuses limitations imposées par le manque de données, les tendances de la migration de retour et des transferts financiers sont également examinées. S’agissant des prévisions, il est probable que les effets de la crise ne disparaîtraient de sitôt, en raison des caractéristiques spécifiques du marché du travail espagnol. Dans un scénario pareil, il est clair que les prévisions concernant l'emploi et les opportunités de la population étrangère soient plutôt pessimistes.
Year 2009
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16 Report

The forecast accuracy of Australian Bureau of Statistics national population projections

Authors Tom Wilson
Year 2007
Journal Name Journal of Population Research
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18 Journal Article
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