Forecasts, projections and scenarios

Forced migration is a movement in which an element of coercion exists, including threats to life and livelihood, whether arising from natural or man-made causes (e.g. movements of refugees and internally displaced persons). The changes of natural and man-made environment will probably be the most significant factors among the causes of forced migration. It is essential to get accurate information about the current and future triggers of forced migration in each country of origin and within Europe itself. The two year long project's general objectives are to support European policies, research and the civil society with'forced migration' scenarios, and cooperate with other migration and environment degradation related projects and institutions. The objectives will be achieved by five interlinked research sequences: 1) forecasting the natural and anthropogenic causes of forced migration; 2) analyzing direct (e.g. desertification) and indirect (e.g. conflicts) environmental effects on livelihoods; 3) predicting potential forced migration flows, with emphasis on environmental refugees; 4) contributing to the preparation of statistical indicators to measure environmental refugee flows; 5) dissemination. The study of the causes is a multidisciplinary and multisectoral process. The list of methodological tools contains all traditional elements of research from primary data collection via statistical analysis and environmental evaluation to modelling. The studied cases are selected from the following regions: Europe and Russia, NIS and Central Asia, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana, Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America. The project will produce detailed sub-region or country level forced migration scenarios, including environmental refugees; presentation of causes leading to forced migration, with focus on environmental concerns; and an online running "environment degradation caused forced migration" model for demonstration and policy purposes.

"Inhalt und Fragestellung: Wir erleben gegenwärtig eine Periode fundamentaler sozialer Transformation, die charakterisiert ist durch den Aufstieg neuer Wirtschaftsmächte, den BRICS- und MINT-Staaten, zunehmende soziale und demographische Ungleichgewichte, geopolitische Unbeständigkeiten, die in diversen Konflikten, sozialen Bewegungen und Aufständen in der Nachbarschaft der EU sichtbar werden, sowie insbesondere die Vierte Industrielle Revolution und nicht zuletzt den Klimawandel. In Deutschland und anderen Ländern geschieht dies vor dem Hintergrund alternder und schrumpfender Bevölkerungen und einer Arbeits- und vor allem Fachkräfteknappheit. Diese Konstellation bringt zunehmende geographische Mobilität und Migration ebenso wie Fluchtbewegungen hervor. Männer und Frauen sowie verschiedene Altersgruppen werden jeweils spezifisch von diesen Verwerfungen berührt, haben geschlechtsspezifische Optionen und reagieren demnach unterschiedlich. All dies berührt die Position der einzelnen Staaten innerhalb der Regionen und globalen Migrationsordnung. In diesem Projekt soll deshalb vor dem Hintergrund von sozialer Transformation und Migrationstransitionsprozesse eine genderdifferenzierte Migrationssystem- und Regimeanalyse durchgeführt werden. Dieses Projekt dient vor allem dazu, die Position und Rolle der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der regionalen Migrationsordnung als Zielland von Migration im regionalen Kontext zu verstehen, aber auch mögliche zukünftige Migration besser abschätzen zu können. Methodik Sekundäranalyse verschiedener makro-ökonomischer und soziologischer Datensätze von UN, Weltbank, Unicef, IOM, UNHCR, ILO, OECD, Eurostat und ähnliche sowie teils auch nationale Daten. Zudem ziehen wir die mikro-soziologischen Daten vorausgegangener Projekte heran, insbesondere die Surveys der Eumagine, Demig, Themis, sowie den Gallup/IOM Surveys. In diesem Kontext werden wir auch die Kooperation verschiedener sozialwissenschaftlicher Disziplinen mit kritischen Datenstudien erproben. Arbeitsschritte Im ersten Schritt identifizieren und besorgen wir die relevanten Daten und untersuchen und vergleichen die Makro-Level Treiber (Wirtschaft, Demographie, Politik) der Entsende- und Zielstaaten der Region (Osteuropa und Zentralasien, Naher und Mittlerer Osten, Nord- und Zentralafrika). Im zweiten Schritt werden wir die Ergebnisse in einem Bericht vorstellen sowie visualisieren und nutzerfreundlich präsentieren. Im dritten Schritt verschaffen wir uns Zugang zu den mikrosoziologischen Daten früherer Projekte. Dies führt zu einem Forschungsbericht. Und in einem vierten Schritt werden wir diverse Methoden zur Antizipation von Migration bzw. zur Entwicklung von Szenarien untersuchen und anschließend in einem fünften Schritt anwenden."

There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios. In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.

In recent decades, Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) have become increasingly prevalent. A common way of assessing costs and benefits of RTAs is by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach. CGE based studies then use this framework to forecast for example, the trade growth, job creation, and welfare gains from forming RTAs. Unfortunately, their predictions poorly match the actual medium to long run outcomes of existing RTAs. With RTAs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnerships (TTIP) currently under negotiation, CGE analysis plays a central role in the negotiation process. Therefore the accuracy of CGE models is of paramount importance. One way in which modern CGE models fall short is in their overly simplistic approach to trade costs. This includes both their measurement and their place in the underlying model. In particular, CGE studies to date fail to account for within-country trade costs, i.e. trade costs which are non-discriminatory as they apply to both domestic and foreign firms. Instead, they focus solely on discriminatory trade costs which apply only to foreigners. This has critical implications both in how to measure trade costs (as many compare within-country to cross-border trade and therefore combine discriminatory and non-discriminatory trade costs) and in how to include them in the analysis. As the goal of RTAs is to reduce trade barriers, this oversight can result in incorrect expectations on an RTA's impact and therefore wrong policy recommendations. The aim of COST project is to develop trade cost measures and specifications for modelling impacts of trade costs for CGE models that overcome these methodological and modelling limitations and consequently improve accuracy of future CGE studies in predicting the costs and benefits of RTAs.

The significance of migration as a social, political and broader public concern has intensified significantly. Migration is increasingly seen as a high-priority policy issue by many governments, politicians and throughout the world. As well as migration projections and scenarios that are essential for appropriate planning and effective policymaking, a deeper understanding of the root causes and drivers of migration and of their interrelation with people’s propensity to migrate is needed. Enhancing migration data is a crucial step to advance migration governance since better data is needed in order to accomplish sustainable social and economic development and national migrant data strategies are required to inform good policies. The project’s overall objective is to improve understandings of changing nature of migration flows and the drivers of migration, to analyse patterns, motivations and new geographies. Moreover, HumMingBird aims to calculate population estimates and determine emerging trends and future trends and accordingly to identify possible future implications of today’s policy decisions. Correspondingly, migration scenarios will be developed in a more forward looking manner that takes into account both quantitative and qualitative perspectives of different migration actors that might have an impact people’s decisions to migrate and consequent trends that will have an impact on our societies. Global scenarios will base on not only a realistic understanding of the drivers and dynamics of migration but also on the effects and effectiveness of past migration policies. Projects ambitions are to identify the uncertainties and reappraise, to explore the reasons why migration predictions may not hold and to demonstrate non-traditional data sources for migration research.

Demography challenges Europe in three ways: 1) Europe’s size: while the population of Europe will decrease or stabilise, depending upon migration scenarios, most other regions will continue to increase so that the relative weight of Europe in world population terms will dwindle, thereby endangering Europe’s weight in world affairs and the institutions of global governance; 2) Europe’s wealth: the European workforce is about to enter a period of fast decline that might hamper Europe’s ambitious economic goals; 3) Europe’s social contract: the unprecedented rise of an elderly population combined with shrinking numbers of working-age natives alters the generational contract and will put Europe’s welfare systems at risk. In order to curb negative population trends, Europe can have recourse to various strategies, each of them having though only a partial potential impact on the above challenges: 1) Geographic enlargement: including new countries in the European Union (EU) brings at once additional populations to the Union; 2) Pro-natalist policies: if successful, they would foster a higher birth rate which translates 20 years later into a corresponding increase in the working-age population; 3) Immigration policies: calling in immigrants would affect both the size and the structure of the population; 4) Retirement policies: changing the age limit between economic activity and retirement is a way to address problems brought about by demographic numbers without changing the numbers themselves; 5) Other policies, notably those on education and labour, can also contribute to addressing, albeit indirectly, some of the problems generated by a decreasing workforce.

The MIGGOV seeks to break new ground in the analysis of international organizations (IOs) as key objects of study in the broader research field of international migration governance and of international governance more generally. The key questions are: to what extent, how and why do IOs impact upon and shape international migration governance in the absence of a global migration regime. In order to address these questions the project shifts the focus from international governance as a (changing) structure to international governors as sources of agency and to the outcomes that flow from interactions between various agents. As most international migration governance takes place under conditions of uncertainty about future migration scenarios, this project will specifically explore the issues of the production and the use of expert knowledge by IOs striving to impact upon international migration governance. The project will study the involvement of eight IOs in migration governance in Central Asia, which has been selected for analysis because it has so far escaped the attention of scholars despite evidence of multi-layered migration governance in the region. The project will specifically look at four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that share many similar features, but also exhibit some distinct political and socio-economic differences that make them highly relevant objects of study. The focus on Central Asia is also justified by the strategic importance that many international actors, including the EU, ascribe to the region. In addition to the Central Asian regional case study and intra-regional comparisons, the MIGGOV will produce overarching comparisons with the EU’s ‘Eastern Neighbourhood’. The project addresses topics on which the EU has called for further research in its 2013 Work Programme, namely those within activities 8.3 ‘Major trends in society and their implications’ and 8.4 ‘Europe in the World’.

Deltas are coastal Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES) characterised by the interplay between rivers, lands and oceans, influenced by a combination of riverine and oceanic processes, shaped by human interventions under strong state water control management policies. Deltas provide numerous resources such as fertile land and water for irrigated and intensive agriculture, fisheries, abundant biodiversity as well as non-farm activities. Thanks to their location at the interface of lower valleys and the sea, and their fluvial connections, trade and exchange have flourished and led to the development and expansion of some of the world’s largest metropolises. Asia is home to the largest and most populated deltas in the world. However, deltas are recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments. They face a range of threats operating at multiple scales, from global climate change (CC) and sea-level rise (SLR) to various hazards (floods, erosion, salinization, subsidence), local anthropogenic activities and land use changes. Deltas are relevant sites for adaptation to CC studies, given they are dynamic systems where communities have a long record of adapting to natural hazards and are accustomed to being highly exposed to environmental risks. Local populations whose livelihoods depend on natural resources have adapted in different ways to live with floods. Objectives The MOVINDELTAS project intends to understand the challenges for deltaic populations when their livelihoods are at risk due to environmental/climatic and global economic changes, and their adaptive capacity sustainability through the current scenarios in the Ganges-Brahmapoutra-Meghna and Mekong deltas. The project approach isinterdisciplinary, multi-scale and long term(past history experiences and forecasting) from four perspectives: i) a physical and environmental assessment of risks posed by multi-hazards linked to adaptive strategies, ii) a socio-economic vulnerability assessment of the population exposed to these hazards, iii) an assessment of the population and local stakeholders’ perception of risk in the risk hotspots, and iv) a projection of how the risk is expected to evolve in the coming decades, with climate changes in the GBM and Mekong deltas. Through its various components, MOVINDELTAS aims to meet several specific objectives: Enhance the understanding of the dynamics of deltaic Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES), and the level of sustainability of deltaic population livelihoods under multi-hazard environmental change. Define the complexity of new patterns of mobility and immobility/migration and non-migration, (involuntary) displacement and translocal livelihoods (across multiple locations, gender, cultures and social classes) in delta regions defined as risk hotspots. Assess the various adaptive strategies and community responses to multi-hazards under expected environmental change in risk hotspots, through model-scenarios/CC in a new context of global CC. Conduct an in-depth and evidence-based analysis of the differentiated perceptions, sensitivity and experiences of men and women in their strategies for coping with environmental, global and climate changes. Include stakeholders in an iterative consultative process throughout the project in order to better understand their perspectives, develop informed models and maximise the potential impact of policy response. Under this specific objective, experience sharing between deltas and the use of local knowledge on adaptation strategies in vulnerable flood deltas will allow future learning, and contribute to the sustainability of the proposed methodology. In fact, the Nile delta is the perfect environmental configuration for a test case as it has several converging and divergent parameters characteristic of South-East-Asia. Partnerships : 27 partners from 4 European countries (France, UK, Germany and Netherland), 4 Asian countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Bangladesh) and Egypt.

In het maatschappelijk debat over de vraag of arbeidsmigratie een oplossing is voor vergrijzing lopen drie vraagstukken door elkaar. Het eerste is de houdbaarheid van de verzorgingsstaat met het oog op de groei van het aantal gepensioneerden ten opzichte van het aantal actieven, de ‘grijze druk’. Het tweede is het structurele personeelstekort doordat meer mensen met pensioen gaan dan er jongeren tot de arbeidsmarkt toetreden. En het derde is het behoud van de welvaart, gemeten als het bruto binnenlands product per hoofd van de bevolking. Het doel van deze verkenning is om een indruk te geven van de grootte van de bijdrage die arbeidsmigratie kan leveren aan het beperken van de gevolgen van de demografische ontwikkelingen voor deze drie vraagstukken in de komende decennia. Concreet gaat het hierbij om de vraag in welke mate arbeidsmigratie de stijging van de grijze druk (de verhouding tussen gepensioneerden en actieven) kan matigen, de omvang van de (potentiële) beroepsbevolking kan vergroten en het welvaartsniveau (gemeten als het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) per hoofd van de bevolking) kan helpen op peil te houden. De gevolgen van extra arbeidsmigratie zijn tevens afgezet tegen die van andere opties om de beroepsbevolking te vergroten, in het bijzonder een geleidelijke (verdere) verhoging van de AOW-leeftijd. Om de effecten van arbeidsmigratie te bepalen, hebben we een gedachte-experiment uitgevoerd. We zijn nagegaan wat de gevolgen zijn als er jaarlijks netto 50.000 extra arbeidsmigranten naar Nederland komen (netto betekent het verschil tussen het aantal arbeidsmigranten dat arriveert en het aantal dat vertrekt). Het aantal van 50.000 heeft een louter illustratieve betekenis. We richten ons daarbij zowel op de effecten op de korte termijn (de komende jaren) als op de middellange (tot 2040) en lange termijn (tot 2070). Andere studies (zoals die van NIDI/CBS en de Staatscommissie Demografische ontwikkelingen) eindigen bij de middellange termijn. We vergelijken het effect van 50.000 arbeidsmigranten per jaar met de middenvariant van de bevolkingsprognose van het CBS. Dat is ons referentiepunt, maar onze conclusies zouden niet wezenlijk anders zijn als we van een ander referentiescenario zouden uitgaan. Om een zo helder mogelijk beeld te schetsen van het effect van 50.000 extra arbeidsmigranten per jaar, maken we een aantal vereenvoudigende veronderstellingen. We veronderstellen om te beginnen dat de extra migranten tijdelijk in Nederland verblijven en weer vertrekken voordat zij de pensioenleeftijd bereiken.

Habitat loss, alteration and fragmentation represent severe threats to biodiversity globally. Wild cats, which generally require large areas over which to forage, are particularly affected by fragmentation and human-felid conflicts. Whereas considerable research has been directed towards large carnivores, smaller more cryptic species have received comparatively little attention. The kodkod or güiña (Leopardus guigna) is the smallest of the neotropical cats and has one of the most restricted distributions known for felids occupying a narrow strip within south-central Chile and Argentina, the core area of indigenous Mapuche communities. The kodkod is classified as vulnerable by IUCN. Principal threats are habitat loss due to agricultural land use and retribution killing after attacks on poultry. The general aim of the project is to explore how projected future social and economic development of the fragmented and ethnically heterogeneous Araucanía region will affect habitat availability for the kodkod on private lands. An auto-ecological study will use radio-telemetry for the first time in the northern pre-Andean distribution range to assess habitat use, home range and activity patterns. An ethno-ecological study will provide understanding of the human environment context in which the kodkod lives. Through quantitative and qualitative interviews with Mapuche people and other socio-cultural groups of landowners knowledge and attitudes will be explored. Linking the ecological, ethnic and social information with geographic information, future land use scenarios will be modelled. This allows strategies to be identified for mitigating conflicts between the development process and habitat quality, and for the role of the kodkod as a cultural keystone species for use in conservation education. Training will be achieved in interdisciplinary aspects of biodiversity conservation (ethnoecology) and its methodologies (telemetry, Geographical Information Systems).

Abstract In 2009, it seems clear that the period of relatively rapid and sustained increase of international migration has come to a halt or, at any rate, slowed down as a result of the financial and economic crisis that started in the summer of 2007. It can be surmised that Spain is likely to be counted among the countries in which the multiple repercussions of the crisis on immigration will be larger and deeper. One reason for it is the fact that in Spain the economic downturn results in exceptionally higher rates of unemployment. Another reason is that the contrast of the new reality generated by the crisis is bound to mark an especially stark contrast with the preceding one. This paper aims at analyzing the major implications of the present financial and economic crisis on Spanish immigration, with particular attention to the community of Moroccan background that lives and works in Spain. The consequences of the recession on migration flows, their changing volume and trends are analyzed, together with its impacts on the demand for labor, unemployment and living conditions. With the many limitations that the paucity of data impose, trends in return migration and in the volume of remittances are examined as well. Looking at the future, it is likely that a long time frame will be required in Spain until the deep effects of the crisis disappear, due to the peculiar characteristics of the Spanish labour market. In such a scenario, it is clear that the forecasts for the employment and opportunities of the immigrant population cannot avoid a certain degree of pessimism. Résumé En 2009, l’augmentation des flux migratoires a subi un fort ralentissement suite à la crise financière et économique qui a commencé au milieu de l'année 2007. On peut affirmer que l'Espagne va probablement figurer parmi les pays dans lesquels les répercussions multiples de la crise sur l'immigration seront plus grandes et plus profondes. Ceci dépend du fait qu’en Espagne le ralentissement de l'économie a provoqué des taux de chômage exceptionnellement plus hauts par rapport à d'autres pays. Une autre raison est que la nouvelle réalité produite par la crise est difficilement réversible. Cette étude propose d’analyser les implications de la crise financière et économique actuelle sur l'immigration espagnole, avec une attention particulière à la communauté marocaine qui vit et travaille en Espagne. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, sont analysés les implications de la récession sur les flux migratoires, leur ampleur et tendances, ainsi que l’impact sur la demande du travail, le chômage et les conditions de vie. Malgré les nombreuses limitations imposées par le manque de données, les tendances de la migration de retour et des transferts financiers sont également examinées. S’agissant des prévisions, il est probable que les effets de la crise ne disparaîtraient de sitôt, en raison des caractéristiques spécifiques du marché du travail espagnol. Dans un scénario pareil, il est clair que les prévisions concernant l'emploi et les opportunités de la population étrangère soient plutôt pessimistes.

The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.

The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.