Forecasts, projections and scenarios

Forced migration is a movement in which an element of coercion exists, including threats to life and livelihood, whether arising from natural or man-made causes (e.g. movements of refugees and internally displaced persons). The changes of natural and man-made environment will probably be the most significant factors among the causes of forced migration. It is essential to get accurate information about the current and future triggers of forced migration in each country of origin and within Europe itself. The two year long project's general objectives are to support European policies, research and the civil society with'forced migration' scenarios, and cooperate with other migration and environment degradation related projects and institutions. The objectives will be achieved by five interlinked research sequences: 1) forecasting the natural and anthropogenic causes of forced migration; 2) analyzing direct (e.g. desertification) and indirect (e.g. conflicts) environmental effects on livelihoods; 3) predicting potential forced migration flows, with emphasis on environmental refugees; 4) contributing to the preparation of statistical indicators to measure environmental refugee flows; 5) dissemination. The study of the causes is a multidisciplinary and multisectoral process. The list of methodological tools contains all traditional elements of research from primary data collection via statistical analysis and environmental evaluation to modelling. The studied cases are selected from the following regions: Europe and Russia, NIS and Central Asia, Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Ghana, Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America. The project will produce detailed sub-region or country level forced migration scenarios, including environmental refugees; presentation of causes leading to forced migration, with focus on environmental concerns; and an online running "environment degradation caused forced migration" model for demonstration and policy purposes.

"Inhalt und Fragestellung: Wir erleben gegenwärtig eine Periode fundamentaler sozialer Transformation, die charakterisiert ist durch den Aufstieg neuer Wirtschaftsmächte, den BRICS- und MINT-Staaten, zunehmende soziale und demographische Ungleichgewichte, geopolitische Unbeständigkeiten, die in diversen Konflikten, sozialen Bewegungen und Aufständen in der Nachbarschaft der EU sichtbar werden, sowie insbesondere die Vierte Industrielle Revolution und nicht zuletzt den Klimawandel. In Deutschland und anderen Ländern geschieht dies vor dem Hintergrund alternder und schrumpfender Bevölkerungen und einer Arbeits- und vor allem Fachkräfteknappheit. Diese Konstellation bringt zunehmende geographische Mobilität und Migration ebenso wie Fluchtbewegungen hervor. Männer und Frauen sowie verschiedene Altersgruppen werden jeweils spezifisch von diesen Verwerfungen berührt, haben geschlechtsspezifische Optionen und reagieren demnach unterschiedlich. All dies berührt die Position der einzelnen Staaten innerhalb der Regionen und globalen Migrationsordnung. In diesem Projekt soll deshalb vor dem Hintergrund von sozialer Transformation und Migrationstransitionsprozesse eine genderdifferenzierte Migrationssystem- und Regimeanalyse durchgeführt werden. Dieses Projekt dient vor allem dazu, die Position und Rolle der Bundesrepublik Deutschland in der regionalen Migrationsordnung als Zielland von Migration im regionalen Kontext zu verstehen, aber auch mögliche zukünftige Migration besser abschätzen zu können. Methodik Sekundäranalyse verschiedener makro-ökonomischer und soziologischer Datensätze von UN, Weltbank, Unicef, IOM, UNHCR, ILO, OECD, Eurostat und ähnliche sowie teils auch nationale Daten. Zudem ziehen wir die mikro-soziologischen Daten vorausgegangener Projekte heran, insbesondere die Surveys der Eumagine, Demig, Themis, sowie den Gallup/IOM Surveys. In diesem Kontext werden wir auch die Kooperation verschiedener sozialwissenschaftlicher Disziplinen mit kritischen Datenstudien erproben. Arbeitsschritte Im ersten Schritt identifizieren und besorgen wir die relevanten Daten und untersuchen und vergleichen die Makro-Level Treiber (Wirtschaft, Demographie, Politik) der Entsende- und Zielstaaten der Region (Osteuropa und Zentralasien, Naher und Mittlerer Osten, Nord- und Zentralafrika). Im zweiten Schritt werden wir die Ergebnisse in einem Bericht vorstellen sowie visualisieren und nutzerfreundlich präsentieren. Im dritten Schritt verschaffen wir uns Zugang zu den mikrosoziologischen Daten früherer Projekte. Dies führt zu einem Forschungsbericht. Und in einem vierten Schritt werden wir diverse Methoden zur Antizipation von Migration bzw. zur Entwicklung von Szenarien untersuchen und anschließend in einem fünften Schritt anwenden."

There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios. In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.

In recent decades, Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) have become increasingly prevalent. A common way of assessing costs and benefits of RTAs is by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) approach. CGE based studies then use this framework to forecast for example, the trade growth, job creation, and welfare gains from forming RTAs. Unfortunately, their predictions poorly match the actual medium to long run outcomes of existing RTAs. With RTAs such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnerships (TTIP) currently under negotiation, CGE analysis plays a central role in the negotiation process. Therefore the accuracy of CGE models is of paramount importance. One way in which modern CGE models fall short is in their overly simplistic approach to trade costs. This includes both their measurement and their place in the underlying model. In particular, CGE studies to date fail to account for within-country trade costs, i.e. trade costs which are non-discriminatory as they apply to both domestic and foreign firms. Instead, they focus solely on discriminatory trade costs which apply only to foreigners. This has critical implications both in how to measure trade costs (as many compare within-country to cross-border trade and therefore combine discriminatory and non-discriminatory trade costs) and in how to include them in the analysis. As the goal of RTAs is to reduce trade barriers, this oversight can result in incorrect expectations on an RTA's impact and therefore wrong policy recommendations. The aim of COST project is to develop trade cost measures and specifications for modelling impacts of trade costs for CGE models that overcome these methodological and modelling limitations and consequently improve accuracy of future CGE studies in predicting the costs and benefits of RTAs.

Demography challenges Europe in three ways: 1) Europe’s size: while the population of Europe will decrease or stabilise, depending upon migration scenarios, most other regions will continue to increase so that the relative weight of Europe in world population terms will dwindle, thereby endangering Europe’s weight in world affairs and the institutions of global governance; 2) Europe’s wealth: the European workforce is about to enter a period of fast decline that might hamper Europe’s ambitious economic goals; 3) Europe’s social contract: the unprecedented rise of an elderly population combined with shrinking numbers of working-age natives alters the generational contract and will put Europe’s welfare systems at risk. In order to curb negative population trends, Europe can have recourse to various strategies, each of them having though only a partial potential impact on the above challenges: 1) Geographic enlargement: including new countries in the European Union (EU) brings at once additional populations to the Union; 2) Pro-natalist policies: if successful, they would foster a higher birth rate which translates 20 years later into a corresponding increase in the working-age population; 3) Immigration policies: calling in immigrants would affect both the size and the structure of the population; 4) Retirement policies: changing the age limit between economic activity and retirement is a way to address problems brought about by demographic numbers without changing the numbers themselves; 5) Other policies, notably those on education and labour, can also contribute to addressing, albeit indirectly, some of the problems generated by a decreasing workforce.

The MIGGOV seeks to break new ground in the analysis of international organizations (IOs) as key objects of study in the broader research field of international migration governance and of international governance more generally. The key questions are: to what extent, how and why do IOs impact upon and shape international migration governance in the absence of a global migration regime. In order to address these questions the project shifts the focus from international governance as a (changing) structure to international governors as sources of agency and to the outcomes that flow from interactions between various agents. As most international migration governance takes place under conditions of uncertainty about future migration scenarios, this project will specifically explore the issues of the production and the use of expert knowledge by IOs striving to impact upon international migration governance. The project will study the involvement of eight IOs in migration governance in Central Asia, which has been selected for analysis because it has so far escaped the attention of scholars despite evidence of multi-layered migration governance in the region. The project will specifically look at four Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan that share many similar features, but also exhibit some distinct political and socio-economic differences that make them highly relevant objects of study. The focus on Central Asia is also justified by the strategic importance that many international actors, including the EU, ascribe to the region. In addition to the Central Asian regional case study and intra-regional comparisons, the MIGGOV will produce overarching comparisons with the EU’s ‘Eastern Neighbourhood’. The project addresses topics on which the EU has called for further research in its 2013 Work Programme, namely those within activities 8.3 ‘Major trends in society and their implications’ and 8.4 ‘Europe in the World’.

Deltas are coastal Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES) characterised by the interplay between rivers, lands and oceans, influenced by a combination of riverine and oceanic processes, shaped by human interventions under strong state water control management policies. Deltas provide numerous resources such as fertile land and water for irrigated and intensive agriculture, fisheries, abundant biodiversity as well as non-farm activities. Thanks to their location at the interface of lower valleys and the sea, and their fluvial connections, trade and exchange have flourished and led to the development and expansion of some of the world’s largest metropolises. Asia is home to the largest and most populated deltas in the world. However, deltas are recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments. They face a range of threats operating at multiple scales, from global climate change (CC) and sea-level rise (SLR) to various hazards (floods, erosion, salinization, subsidence), local anthropogenic activities and land use changes. Deltas are relevant sites for adaptation to CC studies, given they are dynamic systems where communities have a long record of adapting to natural hazards and are accustomed to being highly exposed to environmental risks. Local populations whose livelihoods depend on natural resources have adapted in different ways to live with floods. Objectives The MOVINDELTAS project intends to understand the challenges for deltaic populations when their livelihoods are at risk due to environmental/climatic and global economic changes, and their adaptive capacity sustainability through the current scenarios in the Ganges-Brahmapoutra-Meghna and Mekong deltas. The project approach isinterdisciplinary, multi-scale and long term(past history experiences and forecasting) from four perspectives: i) a physical and environmental assessment of risks posed by multi-hazards linked to adaptive strategies, ii) a socio-economic vulnerability assessment of the population exposed to these hazards, iii) an assessment of the population and local stakeholders’ perception of risk in the risk hotspots, and iv) a projection of how the risk is expected to evolve in the coming decades, with climate changes in the GBM and Mekong deltas. Through its various components, MOVINDELTAS aims to meet several specific objectives: Enhance the understanding of the dynamics of deltaic Social Political Environmental Systems (SPES), and the level of sustainability of deltaic population livelihoods under multi-hazard environmental change. Define the complexity of new patterns of mobility and immobility/migration and non-migration, (involuntary) displacement and translocal livelihoods (across multiple locations, gender, cultures and social classes) in delta regions defined as risk hotspots. Assess the various adaptive strategies and community responses to multi-hazards under expected environmental change in risk hotspots, through model-scenarios/CC in a new context of global CC. Conduct an in-depth and evidence-based analysis of the differentiated perceptions, sensitivity and experiences of men and women in their strategies for coping with environmental, global and climate changes. Include stakeholders in an iterative consultative process throughout the project in order to better understand their perspectives, develop informed models and maximise the potential impact of policy response. Under this specific objective, experience sharing between deltas and the use of local knowledge on adaptation strategies in vulnerable flood deltas will allow future learning, and contribute to the sustainability of the proposed methodology. In fact, the Nile delta is the perfect environmental configuration for a test case as it has several converging and divergent parameters characteristic of South-East-Asia. Partnerships : 27 partners from 4 European countries (France, UK, Germany and Netherland), 4 Asian countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, India, Bangladesh) and Egypt.

Habitat loss, alteration and fragmentation represent severe threats to biodiversity globally. Wild cats, which generally require large areas over which to forage, are particularly affected by fragmentation and human-felid conflicts. Whereas considerable research has been directed towards large carnivores, smaller more cryptic species have received comparatively little attention. The kodkod or güiña (Leopardus guigna) is the smallest of the neotropical cats and has one of the most restricted distributions known for felids occupying a narrow strip within south-central Chile and Argentina, the core area of indigenous Mapuche communities. The kodkod is classified as vulnerable by IUCN. Principal threats are habitat loss due to agricultural land use and retribution killing after attacks on poultry. The general aim of the project is to explore how projected future social and economic development of the fragmented and ethnically heterogeneous Araucanía region will affect habitat availability for the kodkod on private lands. An auto-ecological study will use radio-telemetry for the first time in the northern pre-Andean distribution range to assess habitat use, home range and activity patterns. An ethno-ecological study will provide understanding of the human environment context in which the kodkod lives. Through quantitative and qualitative interviews with Mapuche people and other socio-cultural groups of landowners knowledge and attitudes will be explored. Linking the ecological, ethnic and social information with geographic information, future land use scenarios will be modelled. This allows strategies to be identified for mitigating conflicts between the development process and habitat quality, and for the role of the kodkod as a cultural keystone species for use in conservation education. Training will be achieved in interdisciplinary aspects of biodiversity conservation (ethnoecology) and its methodologies (telemetry, Geographical Information Systems).

Abstract In 2009, it seems clear that the period of relatively rapid and sustained increase of international migration has come to a halt or, at any rate, slowed down as a result of the financial and economic crisis that started in the summer of 2007. It can be surmised that Spain is likely to be counted among the countries in which the multiple repercussions of the crisis on immigration will be larger and deeper. One reason for it is the fact that in Spain the economic downturn results in exceptionally higher rates of unemployment. Another reason is that the contrast of the new reality generated by the crisis is bound to mark an especially stark contrast with the preceding one. This paper aims at analyzing the major implications of the present financial and economic crisis on Spanish immigration, with particular attention to the community of Moroccan background that lives and works in Spain. The consequences of the recession on migration flows, their changing volume and trends are analyzed, together with its impacts on the demand for labor, unemployment and living conditions. With the many limitations that the paucity of data impose, trends in return migration and in the volume of remittances are examined as well. Looking at the future, it is likely that a long time frame will be required in Spain until the deep effects of the crisis disappear, due to the peculiar characteristics of the Spanish labour market. In such a scenario, it is clear that the forecasts for the employment and opportunities of the immigrant population cannot avoid a certain degree of pessimism. Résumé En 2009, l’augmentation des flux migratoires a subi un fort ralentissement suite à la crise financière et économique qui a commencé au milieu de l'année 2007. On peut affirmer que l'Espagne va probablement figurer parmi les pays dans lesquels les répercussions multiples de la crise sur l'immigration seront plus grandes et plus profondes. Ceci dépend du fait qu’en Espagne le ralentissement de l'économie a provoqué des taux de chômage exceptionnellement plus hauts par rapport à d'autres pays. Une autre raison est que la nouvelle réalité produite par la crise est difficilement réversible. Cette étude propose d’analyser les implications de la crise financière et économique actuelle sur l'immigration espagnole, avec une attention particulière à la communauté marocaine qui vit et travaille en Espagne. Pour répondre à ces objectifs, sont analysés les implications de la récession sur les flux migratoires, leur ampleur et tendances, ainsi que l’impact sur la demande du travail, le chômage et les conditions de vie. Malgré les nombreuses limitations imposées par le manque de données, les tendances de la migration de retour et des transferts financiers sont également examinées. S’agissant des prévisions, il est probable que les effets de la crise ne disparaîtraient de sitôt, en raison des caractéristiques spécifiques du marché du travail espagnol. Dans un scénario pareil, il est clair que les prévisions concernant l'emploi et les opportunités de la population étrangère soient plutôt pessimistes.

The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.

The central research theme of this proposal is the study of social change (skills, productivity, attitudes and beliefs) in Europe along cohort lines and as a function of changing age composition. Using demographic methods, age-specific and cohort-specific changes shall be quantitatively disentangled. The impact of migration flows as well as fertility differentials combined with intergenerational transmissions will be taken into account. It is expected that viewed together, these analyses will result in significant new insights and represent frontier research about likely social and economic challenges associated with ageing and demographic change in Europe and the appropriate policies for coping with them. Unlike projections of long-term economic growth or energy use, demographic forecasts tend to have comparatively low margins of error, even for forecasts half a century ahead. Traits that change systematically along age or cohort lines may therefore be projected with some degree of accuracy, which in turn can allow governments and individuals to better foresee and improve policies for predictable social change. The study will investigate two major topics, the first relating to human capital, skills, and work performance; the second relating to beliefs and attitudes in Europe. Understanding age variation in productivity and how to improve senior workers skills and capacities are paramount for ageing countries. Moreover, individual-level demographic behaviour can have aggregate level implications, including changing societal values and belief structures. The binding element is how such projections will improve one s capacity to foresee and hence develop more targeted policies that relate to ageing societies.

Targeted policy responses for irregular migration require better knowledge about the characteristics of the irregular migrant population and dynamics of irregular migration, as well as about the effects of policy measures. Yet, quantitative data relating to irregular migration are scarce, often outdated and contested. The inadequecy of current data makes it challenging for stakeholders to develop and monitor policies. How do legal frameworks in different countries define migrant irregularity? What are the characteristics of irregular migrants in terms of age, gender, nationality or other socioeconomic variables? How can the effects of policy measures, such as regularisation, be assessed? MIrreM adresses the challenge of insufficent knowledge about irregular migration and regularisation in Europe by actively involving relevant stakeholders in every stage of this project – as co-creators of its results and as stakeholders to its mission. In a rigorous comparative and multi-level study, we will assess the policies, data needs and estimates that define migrant irregularity in 11 EU member states, the UK, Canada, the USA and five transit countries. Using several coordinated pilots we will develop new and innovative methods for measuring irregular migration and ‘regularisation scenarios’, and we will explore if and how these instruments can be transferred or scaled up to other socio-economic or institutional conditions. Based on these insights, we will develop two public databases: a) a database with estimates on irregular migrant stocks and b) a database on irregular migration flows, that will also include data on regularisations. Together with the expert groups, we will synthesize our findings into a Handbook on data on irregular migration and a Handbook on regularisation that will support evidenced-based and targeted policymaking concerning irregular migration. Finally, we will develop training resources for policymakers, practitioners, journalists and early-career researchers.

De Meerjaren Productie Prognose (MPP) is een periodiek overzicht van ambtelijke prognoses voor de uitvoeringsdiensten in de migratieketen, waaronder de IND, het COA, de DT&V, de KMar en andere ketenpartners. De MPP wordt gebruikt voor de financiële cyclus en voorziet in jaarlijkse prognoses die elk halfjaar worden geüpdatet voor verschillende processen (zoals asiel, vreemdelingenbewaring of naturalisaties). De MPP wordt opgesteld door een werkgroep van ketenpartners en is dus een product van de migratieketen. Hierdoor kunnen vragen rijzen over de onafhankelijkheid en de mogelijkheid van oneigenlijke beïnvloeding. Om discussie hierover voor te zijn, heeft het WODC opdracht gegeven voor een onderzoek naar de voor- en nadelen die betrokkenen zien van de uitvoering van de MPP door een onderzoeksinstelling buiten de migratieketen. Het onderzoek is tussen juni en oktober 2020 uitgevoerd met documentstudie, interviews met ketenpartners en vertegenwoordigers van onafhankelijke onderzoeksinstellingen buiten de keten (met name Rijkskennisinstellingen) en een expertmeeting

Wir untersuchen die Auswirkungen von Handelsliberalisierung und des Schutzes von geistigem Eigentum auf die Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten im Vergleich zu Nicht-migrierten Personen. Wir erstellen ein Nord-Süd-Handels- und Wachstumsmodell mit einer positiven stationären Migrationsrate. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die bilaterale Handelsliberalisierung die relative Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten bei niedriger Migration verringert und bei hoher Migrationsrate erhöht. Der Schutz geistiger Eigentumsrechte hingegen führt zu einer höheren relativen Arbeitslosenquote von Migrantinnen und Migranten unabhängig vom Ausmaß der Migration. Wir testen und bestätigen empirisch die Vorhersagen, die sich aus der Theorie der Handelsliberalisierung und des Schutzes von geistigem Eigentum ableiten. Projektmethode Theoretische und empirische Analyse Projektziel Die Beziehung zwischen internationaler Handel und die Arbeitslosigkeit von Migranten in Zielländern zu untersuchen.

In deze toekomstverkenning biedt de Adviescommissie voor Vreemdelingenzaken (ACVZ) handvatten om met de onzekere toekomst van migratie om te gaan. Onder meer klimaatverandering, conflicten in de landen rond Europa, de bevolkingsgroei in Afrika, de toekomst van de Europese Unie, innovatie en de sociale cohesie in Nederland passeren de revue als relevante factoren voor migratie. Op basis daarvan schetst dit rapport vier verschillende mogelijke ‘toekomsten’ waarin een migratiebeleid ontwikkeld kan worden. We zijn het in Nederland echter niet met elkaar eens over de richting van het migratiebeleid. Sommige Nederlanders vinden dat migratiebeleid vooral het economisch belang van Nederland moet dienen, anderen dat migratiebeleid er is om vluchtelingen en migranten te beschermen en weer anderen vinden juist dat migratie een last is voor onze samenleving en daarom zoveel mogelijk moet worden beperkt. De ACVZ heeft daarom drie verschillende beleidsscenario’s geschreven, die ieder één van deze perspectieven als uitgangspunt heeft. Uit de studie komt duidelijk naar voren dat de toekomstbestendigheid van de beleidsscenario’s erg afhankelijk is van de vraag hoe de (onbekende) toekomst eruit komt te zien. Voor een zinvol beleid zal zodoende een voortdurende afstemming van het beleid aan de omgeving noodzakelijk zijn. Aandachtspunten die volgens de ACVZ de komende 12 jaar prioriteit verdienen zijn onder meer: 1) Het aanpakken van de grondoorzaken van gedwongen migratie; 2) Het bijdragen aan hoogwaardige en toekomstgerichte opvang in de regio; 3) Een deugdelijke grensbewaking; 4) Een goed functionerende internationale samenwerking; 5) De gevolgen voor de sociale cohesie in de samenleving; 6) Participatie in de samenleving van migranten die toegelaten zijn; 7) De migratiebestendigheid van het sociale zekerheidsstelsel; 8) Een open en eenduidige communicatie van de overheid

Millions of international migrants have recently sought refuge in Europe, animating debates about the best ways to manage migration. Even more people are being displaced within their home countries every year due to natural disasters like floods and storms; and underlying these sudden events is a steady flow of people leaving their rural livelihoods behind and flocking to the cities in an ongoing trend towards urbanization. Across spatial scales, humanity is on the move. And, that much is clear, climate change plays a role in this: whether in the form of unprecedented droughts that drive people to abandon their fields (as likely happened in Syria just before the war) or through differential impacts on countries’ economies that widen the income gaps and fuel international migration. But how large are the effects of climate change - and how do they interact across spatial scales? Little to no quantitative research is available, and the numbers that have been proposed (e.g. of “environmental refugees”) are often crude estimates, and are highly contested. IMPETUS aims for a unified, quantitative modeling approach to understand the linkages between migration, urbanization, and climate change. To this end, the project combines interdisciplinary expertise from climate change, migration, and urban development. The project will not only provide a better understanding of the relevant environmental and social processes, but also provide valuable data - including projections of future migration and urbanization under climate change - to science and policymakers. This may contribute to anticipating political and humanitarian crises and improving migration policies, as well as climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, in a rapidly changing world.

"(1) Aspirations: In the absence of reliable, internationally available migration flow data necessary for statistical forecasting, policymakers increasingly turn to survey data on emigration intentions to evaluate future migration trends. The important assumption – i.e. that there is a measurable and systematic relationship between the intention to migrate and actual migration – has not been firmly established at the international level. In a first step, we examine the association between estimated population averages of emigration intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. First results show a strong association between emigration intentions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized countries, as well as between intentions and aggregated out-migration. The results provide policymakers with a reliability assessment of survey data on emigration intentions and encourage future attempts to incorporate survey data in formal statistical migration forecasting models. (2) Policies: Furthermore, we want to explore to what extent migrants consciously decide to migrate to countries that allow them to improve their economic situation taking into account the difficulties to migrate to this country. In particular, we would like to know how the difficulty to immigrate into a country prevents potential migrants from moving to this country. Might it be that migrants decide to move to more liberal countries to increase the chances to be accepted? We already know that migration flows increase when the destination country is economically more attractive (Borjas 1989; Hatton and Williamson 2003) and decrease when immigration policies are more restrictive (Helbling and Leblang 2018). These effects are to some extent due to rejections during the migration processes when for example visa applications are declined or people are not allowed to enter a country when they arrive at the border. (3) Corruption: Eventually, besides immigration policies in potential destination countries, the formation and subsequent materialization of migration aspirations is determined by various factors in the country of residence. However, there is surprisingly little empirical evidence on factors outside the pure economic sphere. For instance, the link between corruption and emigration has received growing attention. Until now, the evidence claiming a strong relationship relies on individual case studies and correlational analysis which severely limits generalizability. In our study, we apply quasi-experimental methods including instrumental variables and propensity score matching to global survey data on 130 countries over 6 years, covering almost 600’000 individual respondents. We find support for the notion that corruption – systematically and strongly - induces emigration plans across countries, across various model specifications and estimation methods. Strengthening causal claims about the link between corruption and emigration is important for further research in this field. Results are also relevant for policy-makers exploring options to address irregular migration in the context of development and trade agreements. "

The European challenges in the field of migration have an impact on society, since the division between them opposed to newcomers and welcoming them has been continuously increasing. The project addresses the perceptions of the Belgian and European population about refugees/migrants and vice versa as well as their interactions with the policy agenda of asylum and migration with a European comparative perspective and a specific focus on Belgium. As Europe face important migratory challenges and political difficulties we have seen an increase of the public opinion’s polarisation regarding asylum and refugees, it is important to address this question. Including teams from our project will analyse this polarisation and its links to policies, as it is necessary for a better understanding of the current debate on migration in Europe and Belgium. The 2015 asylum crisis will be considered as indicative of the general European and Belgian citizens’ reactions about migration. The focus is then on attitudes, representations, discourses and practices about refugees, on the interactions at the local level between the majority populations and newly arrived migrants. The project will follow two objectives. First studying public opinion towards asylum seekers and refugees with a European cross- national perspective but also how these groups perceive Belgium, its asylum system and its reception policies. The second objective is to analyse the polarisation of the public opinion by focussing on pro and anti-refugees’ actions at the local level. This will allow understanding the links between public opinion and the implementation of asylum and reception policies. In order to fulfil these objectives, our project is based on 5 Work Packages that each focus on a specific dimension. The first two ones aim at developing a European comparative perspective on perceptions towards migrants, refugees and asylum seekers. This then includes a quantitative analysis of public opinion’s perceptions towards new immigration flows as well as a comparison of 5 European case studies (Sweden, Italy, Grece, Hungary and Germany). The three other work packages aim at a deep analysis of the Belgian situation. First, they consist of understanding actions and reactions towards asylum seekers and refugees at a local level. This implies to study the opposite reactions with an in-depth analysis of their content, justifications and determinants but also to focus on interactions between social groups (pro vs. anti migrants groups; ional citizens & refugees) as well as the interactions between the population’s reaction and the implementation of asylum and receptions policies. Second, studying the Belgian situation implies to analyse asylum seekers and refugees perceptions regarding the country’s asylum and reception policies. Lastly, it implies to realise a policy evaluation of those policies. The aim of this project and the main questions it addresses focus more on the relations and on the dynamics existing between the citizens and the migrants, asylum seekers and refugees. Hence, we propose to broaden the scope of what is usually done by extending the focus on actors that are often not implied in migration studies: the majority population and the impact of new migration waves on social cohesion. The expected results concerns: 1) an in-depth and comparative knowledge of attitudes towards migrants and refugees in Europe; 2) an analysis of the factors influencing the attitudes of rejections, disregards and support; 3) an in-depth analysis of the specificities of the current wave of migration compared to the last ones; 4) an in-depth analysis of citizens’ and migrants’ discourses, representation and practices and of their reaction on social cohesion at a local level;

"Ziel des Kooperationsprojektes „RADIKAL“ ist das Verständnis des Zusammenhangs von Migration, Religion und Radikalisierung. Zentral ist dabei die Analyse der Beziehung zwischen Migrationserfahrungen, Akkulturationsprozessen, Diskriminierungswahrnehmungen und -erfahrungen und der Bildung von politischen wie religiösen Überzeugungen, vor allem extremistischer Einstellungen. Im Fokus des Projektes stehen muslimische junge Menschen, die sich radikalisieren bzw. radikalisiert haben. Bestehende Theorien und Daten werden zu Modellen zum kausalen Zusammenhang der Kernkonzepte entwickelt und anhand eines Mixed-Methods-Designs überprüft. Dadurch wird es möglich sein, empirisch fundiert Modelle zu identifizieren, die eine evidenzbasierte Grundlage für die Prävention und Intervention bieten. Die Kernfrage des Kooperationsprojektes „RADIKAL“ ist die Frage nach dem Zusammenhang von Migration, Religion und Radikalisierung. Die theoretische wie die empirische Analyse zielt dabei auf das Verständnis des Zusammenhangs von Migrationserfahrungen, Akkulturationsprozessen, Diskriminierungswahrnehmungen und -erfahrungen und der Bildung von politischen wie religiösen Überzeugungen, hier v.a. extremistischer Einstellungen. Migrationsprozesse werden dabei vor allem auch als Akkulturationsprozesse verstanden, in denen Menschen soziale, politische und religiöse Überzeugungen auf der Grundlage ihrer Erfahrungen während der Akkulturation entwickeln. Es wird angenommen, dass gerade hier extremistische, fundamentalistische und polarisierte (eben radikalisierte) Überzeugungen entstehen können. Auf der Grundlage bestehender Theorien und Daten entwickelt das Projekt zunächst theoretische Modelle zum kausalen Zusammenhang der Kernkonzepte. Diese werden dann anhand einer Kombination von quantitativen wie qualitativen Methoden empirisch untersucht. Dies ermöglicht es, mithilfe der Ergebnisse des Projekts empirisch fundierte Modelle zu identifizieren, die eine evidenzbasierte Grundlage für die Prävention und Intervention bieten. Im Fokus des Projektes stehen muslimische junge Menschen, die sich radikalisieren bzw. radikalisiert haben; sei es in besonders schwerer Weise (Terror) oder weniger schwer (kognitive wie emotionale Nähe zu extremistischen wie fundamentalistischen Gruppen oder Weltanschauungen). Die Aufarbeitung der Analyse soll zudem einen Vergleich mit anderen Phänomenbereichen ermöglichen. Das Projekt besteht aus zwei Phasen: In der ersten Phase wird unabhängig von späteren Einzelfallanalysen kompletter Biografien ein Kodierschema zu den zentralen Konzepten (Migration, Integration/Akkulturation, Diskriminierung, religiöse Bindung und Orientierung) erstellt, um vorhandene und neue Daten zu den Biografien von jungen Menschen zu integrieren. In der zweiten Phase sollen im Besonderen migrations- und integrationsbedingte Risikofaktoren mit Blick auf Radikalisierung und die Bindung an extreme Gruppen herausgearbeitet werden. Auf der Grundlage der Daten der ersten Phase werden dazu hoch radikalisierte Personen mit besonders fundamentalistischer Orientierung identifiziert (qualitative Fallrekonstruktion). Anhand dieser Daten wird eine quantitative Überprüfung der Bedeutung bestimmter Risiko- und Erklärungsfaktoren vorgenommen. Die Ergebnisse von Experteninterviews mit staatlichen und zivilgesellschaftlichen Stakeholdern aus den Bereichen Religion, Sicherheit, Jugendarbeit, Prävention und Deradikalisierung u.a. sollen die Evaluierung der Projekterkenntnisse erweitern und als Grundlage zur Entwicklung von gemeinsamen Strategien der sensiblen Prävention, wie auch neuer Wege der Jugendarbeit dienen."

Gegenstand des Forschungsvorhabens ist die Modellierung der zukünftigen Entwicklung beruflicher Platzierung von in Deutschland lebenden Migranten der dritten Generation in einem mittelfristigen Zeitraum von 30-40 Jahren. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Verbindung dieser Entwicklung mit der demographisch und migrationsgeschichtlich bedingten Veränderung der ethnischen und sozialstrukturellen Bevölkerungszusammensetzung, welche zusätzlich zu kausalen Faktoren den Integrationsstand in der dritten Generation beeinflussen kann (Kompositionseffekte). Als empirische Basis für das Prognosemodell werden theoretisch geleitete Erkenntnisse aus Längsschnittanalysen generiert. Empirische Informationen liegen im ausreichenden Maße vor, um eine verlässliche Schätzung oben genannter Entwicklungen zu realisieren. Dies erfolgt mithilfe einer dynamischen Mikrosimulation, wobei ein aktueller Mikrozensusdatensatz als empirischer Ausgangsdatensatz fungiert.