Prognosen, Projektionen und Szenarien

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Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

Authors Johann Fuchs, Brigitte Weber, Enzo Weber, ...
Year 2017
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
Citations (WoS) 3
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1 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries

Authors Adrian E. Raftery, Jennifer L. Chunn, Patrick Gerland, ...
Year 2013
Journal Name Demography
Citations (WoS) 58
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2 Journal Article

Deviations from fundamental value and future closed-end country fund returns

Authors Luis Berggrun, Emilio Cardona, Edmundo Lizarzaburu
Year 2021
Journal Name Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science
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6 Journal Article

The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models

Authors Juliano Sarmento Cabral, Alma Mendoza‐Ponce, André Pinto da Silva, ...
Year 2023
Journal Name People and Nature
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10 Journal Article

EACH-FOR: Environmental change and forced migration scenarios

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Year 2007
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14 Project

Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Authors Juan Caballero Reina, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Katharina Fenz, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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18 Journal Article

Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex: An Example of the Hamilton–Perry Method in Action

Authors David A. Swanson, Alan Schlottmann, Bob Schmidt
Year 2009
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
Citations (WoS) 22
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19 Journal Article

On Making Flexible Projections of Age-Specific Net Migration

Authors D B Pittenger
Year 1978
Journal Name Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
Citations (WoS) 3
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20 Journal Article

The concept and theory of migration scenarios

Authors E. Paoletti, H. de Haas, C. Vargas-Silva
Year 2010
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24 Report

Generic Incident Model for Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts on Evacuation Times in Large-Scale Emergencies

Authors Andrew J. Collins, Peter Foytik, Erika Frydenlund, ...
Year 2014
Journal Name Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
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25 Journal Article

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

Authors Marianne Frank Hansen, Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen, Torben Tranæs
Year 2017
Journal Name Journal of Population Economics
Citations (WoS) 1
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29 Journal Article

Modélisation des migrations alternantes

Authors Yves Guermond, Patrice Langlois, Bernard Lannuzel, ...
Year 1983
Journal Name L’Espace géographique
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31 Journal Article

The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance

Authors Cristina Blasi Casagran, Colleen Boland, Elena Sánchez-Montijano, ...
Year 2021
Journal Name Politics and Governance
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33 Journal Article

Long‐Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

Authors Patrice Dion, Chantal Grondin, Dominic Grenier, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name Population and Development Review
Citations (WoS) 3
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34 Journal Article

How to Predict Future Migration: Different Methods Explained and Compared

Authors Helga A. G. de Valk, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Qing Guan, ...
Year 2022
Book Title Introduction to Migration Studies
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39 Book Chapter

The use of migration scenarios in future characterisations: A systematic review and typology

Authors Michaël Boissonneault, Jarl Mooyaart, Petra de Jong, ...
Year 2020
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40 Report

A Bayesian semiparametric approach for trend-seasonal interaction: an application to migration forecasts

Authors Alice Milivinti, Giacomo Benini
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
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41 Journal Article

Migrationsordnungs-, -system und -regimeanalyse sowie Entwicklung von zukünftigen Migrationsszenarien

Principal investigator Sulin Sardoschau (Principal Investigator)
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Year 2018
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42 Project

Return Migration After Brain Drain: A Simulation Approach

Authors Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Alessandro Pluchino, Andrea Rapisarda
Year 2013
Journal Name Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
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43 Journal Article

Assessing Immigration Scenarios for the European Union in 2030 Relevant, realistic and reliable?

Authors Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Ravenna Sohst, Jasper Tjaden, ...
Description
There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios. In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.
Year 2020
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44 Report

Childhood adversity and racial discrimination forecast suicidal and death ideation among emerging adult Black men: A longitudinal analysis.

Authors Steven M. Kogan, Steven M. Kogan, Ava J. Reck, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Cultural Diversity & Ethnic Minority Psychology
Citations (WoS) 1
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46 Journal Article

Changes in contemporary migrations to the Amazon: indicative of the case of gauchos to Roraima

Authors Pedro Marcelo Staevie
Year 2017
Journal Name NOVOS CADERNOS NAEA
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49 Journal Article

Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration

Authors Rafael Prieto Curiel, Luca Pappalardo, Lorenzo Gabrielli, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name PLOS ONE
Citations (WoS) 2
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50 Journal Article

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

Authors Alisson F. Barbieri, Edson Domingues, Bernardo L. Queiroz, ...
Year 2010
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 54
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55 Journal Article

Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe

Authors Guillaume Marois, Alain Bélanger, Wolfgang Lutz
Year 2020
Journal Name Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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56 Journal Article

Discriminatory and Nondiscriminatory Trade Costs

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Year 2016
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59 Project

Enhanced migration measures from a multidimensional perspective (HumMingBird)

Principal investigator Idesbald Nicaise (Project Coordinator)
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Year 2019
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61 Project

International Migration and Europe’s Demographic Challenge

Authors Philippe FARGUES
Description Read More
Year 2011
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62 Report

'Knowledgeable' Governors of Uncertainty? International Organisations in the Absence of a Global Migration Regime

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Year 2013
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63 Project

A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications

Authors Chris J. Lloyd, Raymond Kwok, Paul S. F. Yip
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
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68 Journal Article

Past and future drought in Mongolia

Authors Amy Hessl, Benjamin I. Cook, Hanqin Tian, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name SCIENCE ADVANCES
Citations (WoS) 12
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70 Journal Article

Les Deltas Asiatiques comme champ d'observation et de la recherche sur les migrations et les stratégies d'adaptation au changement climatique

Principal investigator Sylvie Fanchette (Principal Investigator)
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Year 2018
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71 Project

Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria

Authors Michaela Potancokova, Sandra Jurasszovich, Anne Goujon
Year 2018
Journal Name Journal of International Migration and Integration
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75 Journal Article

Arbeidsmigratie: Oplossing voor economie en demografie?

Authors Adviesraad Migratie
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Year 2023
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79 Report

Combining Social Media and Survey Data to Nowcast Migrant Stocks in the United States

Authors Monica Alexander, Kivan Polimis, Emilio Zagheni
Year 2020
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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80 Journal Article

RISKS OF THE HIGH-SCALE IMMIGRATION IN THE PUBLIC DISCOURSE OF RUSSIA

Authors Vasil T. Sakaev
Year 2018
Journal Name REVISTA SAN GREGORIO
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82 Journal Article

Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Authors Ådne Cappelen, Terje Skjerpen, Marianne Tønnessen
Year 2015
Journal Name International Migration Review
Citations (WoS) 6
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86 Journal Article

Distortion of regional old-age mortality due to late-life migration in the Netherlands?

Authors Eva Kibele, Fanny Janssen
Year 2013
Journal Name Demographic Research
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90 Journal Article

Forecasting conservation needs for endangered fauna:integrating landscape ecology and ethnoecology to predict habitat quality for the kodkod cat (Leopardus guigna) in the Chilean temperate rainforest

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Year 2010
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93 Project

The Impacts of the Current Financial and Economic Crisis on Migration in the Spain-Morocco Corridor

Authors Joaquín ARANGO, Fernando GONZÁLEZ QUIÑONES
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Year 2009
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94 Report

The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

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Year 2009
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95 Project

COHORT: The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

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Year 2009
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96 Project

Multiregional cohort enrolment projections: matching methods to enrolment policies

Authors Stuart H. Sweeney, Erin J. Middleton
Year 2005
Journal Name Population, Space and Place
Citations (WoS) 3
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98 Journal Article

The Media Marketplace for Garbled Demography

Authors Michael S. Teitelbaum
Year 2004
Journal Name Population and Development Review
Citations (WoS) 19
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99 Journal Article
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