Prognosen, Projektionen und Szenarien

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Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

Authors Johann Fuchs, Brigitte Weber, Enzo Weber, ...
Year 2017
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
Citations (WoS) 3
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1 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries

Authors Adrian E. Raftery, Jennifer L. Chunn, Patrick Gerland, ...
Year 2013
Journal Name Demography
Citations (WoS) 58
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2 Journal Article

Bayesian Probabilistic Projection of International Migration

Authors Jonathan J. Azose, Adrian E. Raftery
Year 2015
Journal Name Demography
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3 Journal Article

Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method

Authors Arkadiusz Wisniowski, Peter W. F. Smith, Jakub Bijak, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name Demography
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4 Journal Article

A Long Short-Term Memory Forecast of sub-National Population Change Across Europe

Authors Niall Newsham, Pavitra Kumar, Carmen Cabrera-Arnau, ...
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5 Journal Article

Deviations from fundamental value and future closed-end country fund returns

Authors Luis Berggrun, Emilio Cardona, Edmundo Lizarzaburu
Year 2021
Journal Name Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science
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6 Journal Article

TEST SEIRCRT |ˈsəːkrɪt |: For the Health of Our Communities

Authors Jennifer Mills
Year 2020
Journal Name Journal of Black Studies
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7 Journal Article

Gravity models do not explain, and cannot predict, international migration dynamics

Authors Robert M. Beyer, Jacob Schewe, Hermann Lotze-Campen
Year 2022
Citations (WoS) 20
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8 Journal Article

Small-area population forecasting in a segregated city using density-functional fluctuation theory

Authors Yuchao Chen, Yunus A. Kinkhabwala, Boris Barron, ...
Year 2024
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9 Journal Article

The road to integrate climate change projections with regional land‐use–biodiversity models

Authors Juliano Sarmento Cabral, Alma Mendoza‐Ponce, André Pinto da Silva, ...
Year 2023
Journal Name People and Nature
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10 Journal Article

Volume 48 Index

Year 2011
Journal Name Demography
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11 Journal Article

Forecasting human capital of EU member countries accounting for sociocultural determinants

Authors Guillaume Marois, Patrick Sabourin, Alain Bélanger
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of Demographic Economics
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12 Journal Article

Completion of Vital Transition and Changing Migration in Indonesia: Empirical Results and Projection Scenarios

Authors Aris Ananta, Salahudin Muhidin
Year 2005
Journal Name Population Review
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13 Journal Article

EACH-FOR: Environmental change and forced migration scenarios

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Year 2007
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14 Project

Does Specification Matter? Experiments with Simple Multiregional Probabilistic Population Projections

Authors James Raymer, Guy J Abel, Andrei Rogers
Year 2012
Journal Name Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
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15 Journal Article

Projections of the Residential Distribution of an Ethnic Group: Indians in Bradford

Authors P H Rees, S Ram
Year 1987
Journal Name Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
Citations (WoS) 2
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16 Journal Article

Accuracy of Local Authority Population Forecasts Produced by a New Minimal Data Model: A Case Study of England

Authors Philip Rees, Tom Wilson
Year 2023
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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17 Journal Article

Gravity Models for Global Migration Flows: A Predictive Evaluation

Authors Juan Caballero Reina, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Katharina Fenz, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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18 Journal Article

Forecasting the Population of Census Tracts by Age and Sex: An Example of the Hamilton–Perry Method in Action

Authors David A. Swanson, Alan Schlottmann, Bob Schmidt
Year 2009
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
Citations (WoS) 22
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19 Journal Article

On Making Flexible Projections of Age-Specific Net Migration

Authors D B Pittenger
Year 1978
Journal Name Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
Citations (WoS) 3
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20 Journal Article

Adolescent offenders' current whereabouts predict locations of their future crimes

Authors Wim Bernasco
Year 2019
Journal Name PLOS ONE
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21 Journal Article

A mathematical approach to study and forecast racial groups interactions: deterministic modeling and scenario method

Authors Goran Dominioni, Addolorata Marasco, Alessandro Romano
Year 2018
Journal Name Quality & Quantity
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23 Journal Article

The concept and theory of migration scenarios

Authors E. Paoletti, H. de Haas, C. Vargas-Silva
Year 2010
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24 Report

Generic Incident Model for Investigating Traffic Incident Impacts on Evacuation Times in Large-Scale Emergencies

Authors Andrew J. Collins, Peter Foytik, Erika Frydenlund, ...
Year 2014
Journal Name Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
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25 Journal Article

The Democratic Republic of the Congo armed conflict 1998-2004: Assessing excess mortality based on factual and cournter-factual projection scenarios

Authors Richard Kapend, Jakub Bijak, Andrew Hinde
Year 2020
Journal Name Quetelet Journal
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26 Journal Article

Multistep ahead forecasting of vector time series

Authors Tucker McElroy, Michael W. McCracken
Year 2017
Journal Name ECONOMETRIC REVIEWS
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27 Journal Article

Predicting the network shift of large urban agglomerations in China using the deep-learning gravity model: A perspective of population migration

Authors Xinyue Gu, Xinyue Gu, Xingyu Tang, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Cities
Citations (WoS) 7
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28 Journal Article

The fiscal impact of immigration to welfare states of the Scandinavian type

Authors Marianne Frank Hansen, Marie Louise Schultz-Nielsen, Torben Tranæs
Year 2017
Journal Name Journal of Population Economics
Citations (WoS) 1
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29 Journal Article

Forecasting intensive care unit demand during the COVID-19 pandemic: A spatial age-structured microsimulation model

Authors Sebastian Klüsener, Ralf Schneider, Matthias Rosenbaum-Feldbrügge, ...
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30 Journal Article

Modélisation des migrations alternantes

Authors Yves Guermond, Patrice Langlois, Bernard Lannuzel, ...
Year 1983
Journal Name L’Espace géographique
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31 Journal Article

The Role of Emerging Predictive IT Tools in Effective Migration Governance

Authors Cristina Blasi Casagran, Colleen Boland, Elena Sánchez-Montijano, ...
Year 2021
Journal Name Politics and Governance
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33 Journal Article

Long‐Term Contribution of Immigration to Population Renewal in Canada: A Simulation

Authors Patrice Dion, Chantal Grondin, Dominic Grenier, ...
Year 2015
Journal Name Population and Development Review
Citations (WoS) 3
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34 Journal Article

Vietnamese Refugees in America: Toward a Theory of Spontaneous International Migration

Authors Darrell Montero
Year 1979
Journal Name International Migration Review
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35 Journal Article

Google Trends and tourists' arrivals: Emerging biases and proposed corrections

Authors Theologos Dergiades, Eleni Mavragani, Bing Pan
Year 2018
Journal Name Tourism Management
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36 Journal Article

Poverty‐Armed Conflict Nexus: Can Multidimensional Poverty Data Forecast Intrastate Armed Conflicts?

Authors Çağlar Akar, Doğa Başar Sarıipek, Gökçe Cerev
Year 2024
Journal Name Social Inclusion
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37 Journal Article

Labour Force Projections in India Until 2060 and Implications for the Demographic Dividend

Authors Guillaume Marois, Ekaterina Zhelenkova, Balhasan Ali
Year 2022
Journal Name Social Indicators Research
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38 Journal Article

How to Predict Future Migration: Different Methods Explained and Compared

Authors Helga A. G. de Valk, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Qing Guan, ...
Year 2022
Book Title Introduction to Migration Studies
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39 Book Chapter

The use of migration scenarios in future characterisations: A systematic review and typology

Authors Michaël Boissonneault, Jarl Mooyaart, Petra de Jong, ...
Year 2020
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40 Report

A Bayesian semiparametric approach for trend-seasonal interaction: an application to migration forecasts

Authors Alice Milivinti, Giacomo Benini
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
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41 Journal Article

Migrationsordnungs-, -system und -regimeanalyse sowie Entwicklung von zukünftigen Migrationsszenarien

Principal investigator Sulin Sardoschau (Principal Investigator)
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Year 2018
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42 Project

Return Migration After Brain Drain: A Simulation Approach

Authors Alessio Emanuele Biondo, Alessandro Pluchino, Andrea Rapisarda
Year 2013
Journal Name Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation
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43 Journal Article

Assessing Immigration Scenarios for the European Union in 2030 Relevant, realistic and reliable?

Authors Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Ravenna Sohst, Jasper Tjaden, ...
Description
There is increasing policy interest in the European Union to better plan and prepare for future migration flows. This is reflected in the growing number of reports that use expert knowledge to anticipate migration trends and develop migration scenarios. In this report, the IOM’s Global Migration Data Analysis Centre (GMDAC), in partnership with the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), examines the potential and limitations of using expert opinion to predict future migration. This pilot study combines two approaches, namely, migration scenarios and Delphi expert surveys, to assess the implications and uncertainty of immigration scenarios for the European Union in 2030. The results demonstrate the high level of uncertainty and disagreement among experts about how basic drivers of migration – such as multilateralism and economic convergence – might shape future immigration to the European Union. While expert advice is useful for stimulating strategic, long-term thinking and discussion, the results highlight the limitations of using experts to improve operational preparedness.
Year 2020
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44 Report

Aerodynamic Effects of Road Topography and Meteorological Conditions on Time-Trialling Cycling Performance

Authors Pascual Marques-Bruna, Paul Grimshaw
Year 2008
Journal Name INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SPORTS SCIENCE & COACHING
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45 Journal Article

Childhood adversity and racial discrimination forecast suicidal and death ideation among emerging adult Black men: A longitudinal analysis.

Authors Steven M. Kogan, Steven M. Kogan, Ava J. Reck, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Cultural Diversity & Ethnic Minority Psychology
Citations (WoS) 1
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46 Journal Article

'Look East Policy' after 35 years from social sciences perspectives: A new paradigm for Japan-Malaysia relations 1982-2017

Authors Sivamurugan Pandian, Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid, Paramjit Singh Jamir Singh, ...
Year 2021
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47 Journal Article

TOWARDS A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF UNETHICAL MARKETING PRACTICES IN TOURISM: A CASE-STUDY OF AUSTRALIA'S INBOUND CHINESE TRAVEL MARKET

Authors Roger March
Year 2008
Journal Name JOURNAL OF TRAVEL & TOURISM MARKETING
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48 Journal Article

Changes in contemporary migrations to the Amazon: indicative of the case of gauchos to Roraima

Authors Pedro Marcelo Staevie
Year 2017
Journal Name NOVOS CADERNOS NAEA
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49 Journal Article

Gravity and scaling laws of city to city migration

Authors Rafael Prieto Curiel, Luca Pappalardo, Lorenzo Gabrielli, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name PLOS ONE
Citations (WoS) 2
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50 Journal Article

How do farmer’s disaster experiences influence their climate change perception and adaptation?

Authors Xueping Li, Zhenxuan Cao, Xingmin Shi
Year 2021
Journal Name Climate and Development
Citations (WoS) 11
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51 Journal Article

Projecting Interregional Migration Balances within a Multiregional Cohort—Component Framework

Authors T Werschler, F Nault
Year 1996
Journal Name Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space
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52 Journal Article

Investigating the effect of industry-specific economic distance on the prediction of intercity population movement

Authors Yuxia Wang, Yuxia Wang, Xin Yao, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Cities
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53 Journal Article

Disasters, migrations, and the unintended consequences of urbanization: What’s the harm in getting out of harm’s way?

Authors Christopher Wolsko, Elizabeth Marino
Year 2015
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 3
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54 Journal Article

Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

Authors Alisson F. Barbieri, Edson Domingues, Bernardo L. Queiroz, ...
Year 2010
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 54
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55 Journal Article

Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe

Authors Guillaume Marois, Alain Bélanger, Wolfgang Lutz
Year 2020
Journal Name Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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56 Journal Article

Overview of Trends and Policies on International Migration to East Asia: Comparing Japan, Taiwan and South Korea

Authors Yean-Ju Lee
Year 2011
Journal Name Asian and Pacific Migration Journal
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57 Journal Article

Discriminatory and Nondiscriminatory Trade Costs

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Year 2016
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59 Project

Environmental change and migration: methodological considerations from ground-breaking global survey

Authors Koko Warner
Year 2011
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 21
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60 Journal Article

Enhanced migration measures from a multidimensional perspective (HumMingBird)

Principal investigator Idesbald Nicaise (Project Coordinator)
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Year 2019
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61 Project

International Migration and Europe’s Demographic Challenge

Authors Philippe FARGUES
Description Read More
Year 2011
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62 Report

'Knowledgeable' Governors of Uncertainty? International Organisations in the Absence of a Global Migration Regime

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Year 2013
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63 Project

Demography and Public Health Emergency Preparedness: Making the Connection

Authors Heather Allen, Rebecca Katz
Year 2009
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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64 Journal Article

Climate change: understanding anthropogenic contributions and responses

Authors Donald R. Nelson
Year 2010
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 2
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65 Journal Article

Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China

Year 2017
Journal Name SCIENCE ADVANCES
Citations (WoS) 27
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66 Journal Article

Applying Concepts and Tools in Demography for Estimating, Analyzing, and Forecasting Forced Migration

Authors Raya Muttarak
Year 2021
Journal Name Journal on Migration and Human Security
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67 Journal Article

A scenario analysis of future Hong Kong age and labour force profiles and its implications

Authors Chris J. Lloyd, Raymond Kwok, Paul S. F. Yip
Year 2019
Journal Name Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society
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68 Journal Article

Demographic futurity: How statistical assumption politics shape immigration policy rationales in Germany

Authors Susanne Schultz
Year 2018
Journal Name Environment and Planning D: Society and Space
Citations (WoS) 1
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69 Journal Article

Past and future drought in Mongolia

Authors Amy Hessl, Benjamin I. Cook, Hanqin Tian, ...
Year 2018
Journal Name SCIENCE ADVANCES
Citations (WoS) 12
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70 Journal Article

Les Deltas Asiatiques comme champ d'observation et de la recherche sur les migrations et les stratégies d'adaptation au changement climatique

Principal investigator Sylvie Fanchette (Principal Investigator)
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Year 2018
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71 Project

Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives

Authors Samir KC, Wolfgang Lutz
Year 2014
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 22
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72 Journal Article

Recent developments in population projection methodology: a review

Authors Tom Wilson, Phil Rees
Year 2005
Journal Name Population, Space and Place
Citations (WoS) 54
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73 Journal Article

A dataset of human capital-weighted population estimates for 185 countries from 1970 to 2100

Authors Guillaume Marois, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Jakob Zellmann, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name Scientific Data
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74 Journal Article

Consequences of International Migration on the Size and Composition of Religious Groups in Austria

Authors Michaela Potancokova, Sandra Jurasszovich, Anne Goujon
Year 2018
Journal Name Journal of International Migration and Integration
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75 Journal Article

Modelling and Forecasting Interregional Migration for Multiregional Population Projections

Authors Michael P. Cameron, Jacques Poot
Year 2024
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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76 Journal Article

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Authors Stein Emil Vollset, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, ...
Year 2024
Journal Name The Lancet
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78 Journal Article

Arbeidsmigratie: Oplossing voor economie en demografie?

Authors Adviesraad Migratie
Description Read More
Year 2023
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79 Report

Combining Social Media and Survey Data to Nowcast Migrant Stocks in the United States

Authors Monica Alexander, Kivan Polimis, Emilio Zagheni
Year 2020
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
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80 Journal Article

Household Forecasts for the Planning of Long‐Term Domestic Water Demand: Application to London and the Thames Valley

Authors Philip Rees, Stephen Clark, Rizwan Nawaz
Year 2020
Journal Name Population, Space and Place
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81 Journal Article

RISKS OF THE HIGH-SCALE IMMIGRATION IN THE PUBLIC DISCOURSE OF RUSSIA

Authors Vasil T. Sakaev
Year 2018
Journal Name REVISTA SAN GREGORIO
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82 Journal Article

Temporary Migration Programmes: the Cause or Antidote of Migrant Worker Exploitation in UK Agriculture

Authors Erica Consterdine, Sahizer Samuk
Year 2018
Journal Name Journal of International Migration and Integration
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83 Journal Article

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

Authors Frans Willekens, Sabine Zinn, Matthias Leuchter
Year 2017
Journal Name Demography
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84 Journal Article

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

Authors Lilian Patricia Sales, P de Marco, Rafael D. Loyola, ...
Year 2017
Journal Name PLOS ONE
Citations (WoS) 6
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85 Journal Article

Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Authors Ådne Cappelen, Terje Skjerpen, Marianne Tønnessen
Year 2015
Journal Name International Migration Review
Citations (WoS) 6
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86 Journal Article

Evaluation of Alternative Cohort-Component Models for Local Area Population Forecasts

Authors Tom Wilson
Year 2015
Journal Name Population Research and Policy Review
Citations (WoS) 11
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87 Journal Article

Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania

Authors Christopher D. Smith
Year 2014
Journal Name Climate and Development
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88 Journal Article

Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

Authors Guy J. Abel, James Raymer, Peter W.F. Smith, ...
Year 2013
Journal Name Demographic Research
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89 Journal Article

Distortion of regional old-age mortality due to late-life migration in the Netherlands?

Authors Eva Kibele, Fanny Janssen
Year 2013
Journal Name Demographic Research
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90 Journal Article

Understanding the demographic implications of climate change: estimates of localized population predictions under future scenarios of sea-level rise

Authors Katherine J. Curtis, Annemarie Schneider
Year 2011
Journal Name Population and Environment
Citations (WoS) 41
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91 Journal Article

A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

Authors Guy J Abel, Jakub Bijak, James Raymer
Year 2010
Journal Name Population Trends
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92 Journal Article

Forecasting conservation needs for endangered fauna:integrating landscape ecology and ethnoecology to predict habitat quality for the kodkod cat (Leopardus guigna) in the Chilean temperate rainforest

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Year 2010
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93 Project

The Impacts of the Current Financial and Economic Crisis on Migration in the Spain-Morocco Corridor

Authors Joaquín ARANGO, Fernando GONZÁLEZ QUIÑONES
Description Read More
Year 2009
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94 Report

The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

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Year 2009
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95 Project

COHORT: The demography of skills and beliefs in Europe with a focus on cohort change

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Year 2009
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96 Project

Multiregional cohort enrolment projections: matching methods to enrolment policies

Authors Stuart H. Sweeney, Erin J. Middleton
Year 2005
Journal Name Population, Space and Place
Citations (WoS) 3
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98 Journal Article

The Media Marketplace for Garbled Demography

Authors Michael S. Teitelbaum
Year 2004
Journal Name Population and Development Review
Citations (WoS) 19
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99 Journal Article

Forecasting enrollments for immigrant entry-port school districts

Authors Peter A. Morrison
Year 2000
Journal Name Demography
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100 Journal Article
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